CIA assesses comparative military strength in the Horn of Africa (1970)
The CIA developed a list assessed comparative military strength and equipment in the Horn of Africa in 1970
In 1970, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) put together a situation assessment on the Horn of Africa dated to May that year. The report was submitted by R. Jack Smith, Deputy Director for Central Intelligence covering Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and Sudan. Much of the focus in the report is on how domestic factors in each country map onto broader Cold War dynamics. I’ll post it at greater length somewhere else as some of the analysis is actually incredibly astute and far-sighted. For example:
“Somalia generally accepts as a long range goal the annexation of Somali-inhabited lands in Kenya, Ethiopia, and the French Territory of the Afars and Issas (TFAI), and this contributes to the tension. Mogadiscio is unlikely to try to gain these lands until more favorable opportunities arise. If the French were to withdraw from the TFAI, or if the deaths of Kenyatta and Haile Selassie were followed by civil strife in these countries, Somalia would almost certainly seek territorial gains. This would lead to serious military clashes. Full scale warfare would be difficult because of the distances involved, and the logistic and organizational limitations of all armed force in the area.”
But in any case, the figures above are US intelligence estimates of the number of army personnel each country in the region has and how much equipment each armed forces possesses, including air power and naval craft. The full report can be accessed here. Ethiopia, described by Kissinger as America’s “closest friend in Africa”, expectedly leads in all fields followed by Sudan. The figures come with an important caveat though:
“Figures show total inventory and do not reflect current operational status. This data does not provide a basis for judging comparative capabilities.”