Ethiopia Worried by Coming Vote On Independence in French Colony – NYT
As Djibouti's independence loomed officials in Addis Ababa, stills struggling to stabilise their new revolutionary regime, were anxious that it would become pro-Somalia.
The year 1977 was tumultuous for the Horn of Africa, marking a significant historical turning point. While this may not have been immediately evident at the time, most historians of the region now regard 1977 as pivotal in shaping the Horn we see today. It is where many of us begin the region’s origin story, in terms of how the chips fell for all actors. I often think of it in the way Tony Judt viewed 1945 for Europe.
Somalia invaded Ethiopia, while Mengistu consolidated his Marxist regime in Addis Ababa in response. The United States and the Soviet Union turned the local conflict between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa into another theatre for their superpower rivalry. And Djibouti declared its independence from French rule. The Somali invasion also bolstered Eritrean rebels in Ethiopia’s northern Red Sea region, draining the state’s resources as it faced an increasingly aggressive and determined insurgency. “Even in a season of bad years, it is a particularly very bad year for the Horn of Africa,” wrote Ugandan journalist A. K. Kaiza.
This article is about how 77’ impacted Djibouti, a tiny country bordering Eritrea to the west and Somali(land)a to the east.
In a clip that circulated on social media in mid-January, Djiboutian general Zakariya Sheikh Ibrahim delivered a speech to his troops regarding Somalia’s efforts to secure Djibouti’s independence from France that year and the debt his country owed its neighbour. “That country, Somalia, it is our honour to help our brothers in their time of difficulty,” he said. He added: “For their struggle for our independence, we have repaid them by sacrificing our blood.”
The broader context in which he made these comments arises amid growing concerns that Somaliland may cede part of its coastline to Ethiopia in exchange for diplomatic recognition, following an agreement made with Hargeisa. Djibouti is displeased with this arrangement, as it introduces competition to its own port, which holds a virtual monopoly on Ethiopian imports and exports. Djibouti has also offered one of its own ports as an alternative to help Somalia and Ethiopia de-escalate tensions. However, policymakers there are well aware that Ethiopia has, at various times, attempted to intimidate all its neighbours into ceding territory or facing potential annexation.
This New York Times article reports on Ethiopian anxieties about Djibouti’s looming independence and the prospect of the emerging state taking a pro-Somalia regional stance against Addis Ababa. At the end there is a reference to Ethiopia providing a special administrative zone to the “Mars”. I’m not sure who the Mars are unfortunately and have asked friends in case it is an oversight on my part. That is likely a typo and the story is probably referring to the Afars, whose territory spans northern Ethiopia and large parts of modern Djibouti.
Ethiopia is keeping a nervous eye on developments in the neighboring French Territory of Afars and Issas, where referendum on May 8 is expected to lead to independence and, Ethiopia fears, to a government linked to Somalia.
In the referendum, the population will be asked to approve independence for the territory on June 27, an approval considered a certainty. It is accompanied by an election for a postindependence parliament of 65 members, and the single slate of candidates does not include any favored by Ethiopia. Ethiopia regards them as pro‐Somali and fears that the new parliament may favor annexation by Somalia.
For more than a year, the two rival powers on the Horn of Africa have been positioning themselves to control the tiny enclave when the French leave their last colony on the continent The territory, with a population between 200,000 and 250,000, is more commonly’ known by the name of its port and only major city, Djibouti, which commands a strategic position on the Bab el Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea,
Somalia Has Historic Claim
Somalia has long asserted a historic claim to the territory, where one of the two major tribes, the Issas, are Somali speaking. Ethiopia sees its security at stake, since Djibouti is the terminus of a 60‐year‐old railroad to Addis Ababa that carries 50 percent of Ethiopia's *imports and exports.
The other major ethnic group in the territory, the Afars, are part of a nomadic’ group of 200,000 who range up the coastline deep inside ‘northern Ethiopia. Under French rule the Afars, perhaps slightly outnumbered by the Issas, were favored and rose to dominance, assuring close ties with Ethiopia.
As the movement for independence gained momentum, however, the main political party of the Afars, headed by Premier All Arif Bourhan, became splintered, and its Ethiopian‐oriented head was dismissed and charged with being a puppet of the French.
Some Afars Boycotted Talks
Mr. Bourhan's supporters and other important Afars boycotted the independence talks with the French, which were condemned by Ethiopia as a sham. They have refused to field candidates for the election.
The most powerful, emerging party is the Popular League for Independence, headed by Hassan Gouled Aptidon, an Issa. He will probably be the first President of an independent Djibouti.
The league has been working closely with a Somali‐backed “liberation” group, the Front for the Liberation of the Somali Coast, and also with a breakaway group from Mr. Bourhan's old party.
The resulting compromise slate of candidates is reasonably well balanced ethnically, with 33 Issas, 30 Afars and two Arabs. In the Ethiopian view, it is stacked with people who favor Somalian domination and who may one day press for second referendum on the question of unity with Somalia.’
“Don't forget,” said a high official of the Ethiopian press agency, “the Somali flag has a star with five points. Each point stands for a piece of the dream of greater Somalia. One is our own Ogaden. Another is Djibouti.”
Somalia has apparently pledged not to annex the territory outright, stressing, instead that it favors the right of selfdetermination for Djibouti. But this is less than comforting statement as far as Ethiopia is concerned, because it leaves the door open for a voted union.
A year ago, French maneuvering over Djibouti appeared to favor Ethopia. But now, as the ruling military council in Ethopia adopts a more strident Marxist line and is considered by the West a destabilizing force on the Horn, it appears to have shifted in favor of Somalia. Conservative Arab states are trying to woo Somalia away from the Soviet Union.
For six months, Somalia and Ethiopia have been sending weapons into Djibouti in preparation for a showdown. The French are reported to have increased their troop strength to 12,000, 50 percent more than were there four months ago.
But some analysts see the prospect of immediate war as less pressing than appeared at the beginning of the year. Ethiopia, they point out, is concerned by developments in the north, where it is fighting Eritrean secessionists and an invading rightist army, and is in no position to take on an enemy to the east. Somalia has every reason to be reassured by the turn of events. The Soviet Union, now the ideological guide of both countries, is also believed to be playing a mediating ‘role.
Ten days ago, the Ethiopian Government publicized demands to create a special administrative region for the Mars in its own northern provinces. The move was taken as an effort to bolster the Mars! loyalty so that they do not join with the Eritreans and also to form stronger tribal entity to influence events in Djibouti.