Kissinger reacts to the assassination of President Abdirashid Shermarke & the coup
Kissinger believed his assassination wouldn't impact Somali-US ties but did correctly predict that the coup would
Henry Kissinger was at the heart of all major US foreign policy decisions for decades serving successive administrations whether Democrat or Republican. In October 1969, Somalia rose to being one of the more serious concerns for the Americans as developments in the Horn of Africa country threatened the detente reached with the Soviet Union, which allowed for a marked downturn in tensions between the superpowers. Two letters reveal Kissinger’s thinking on the assassination of President Abdirashid Shermarke on the 15th October that year and another message to President Nixon in which he summarised the US view on the military coup on October 21st.
On the assassination of Shermarke, Kissinger believed US-Somali ties wouldn’t be harmed as US intelligence indicated that the likely successors were all pro-west and that the assassin was likely acting according to his own initiative. Curiously, Kissinger wrongly forecasts that a coup in Somalia wasn’t likely. Egal was in California at the time and flew back after a meeting with President Nixon on the 6th October. Here is the full text taken from the State department archive:
FROM: Henry Kissinger
SUBJECT: Political Implication of Assassination of Somali President
We still lack detailed information on the murder of President Shermarke of Somalia. But the intelligence yields the following points:
-- Despite tribal resentment toward the government's detente with Ethiopia and the rancor of the losers over a bitterly contested parliamentary election in March, the assassin -- a member of the Mobile Police Force -- appears to have been acting on his own.
-- An army (anti-detente) takeover in the near future is not likely. The possibility remains, however, that there will be some inter-tribal fighting if the assassin turns out to be from a major tribal group opposed to Shermarke on ethnic rather than political grounds.
-- The National Assembly will elect a new President within 30 days. All leading candidates are pro-Western, and would probably continue Somalia's ties with us as well as a conciliatory policy toward Ethiopia over the disputed border.
Prime Minister Egal, whom you saw last week, is now flying home from California. His return should have a general calming effect on the country.About two weeks later, after a period of considerable uncertainty in Somalia the military took over the country. “They were probably moved in part by disagreement with Egal's policy of detente”, wrote Kissinger, “and in part by resentment of the inevitable corruption and inefficiency of African democracies (even in a model government like Somalia’s).”
The implications of the coup were much clearer for Kissinger who told the president that if Somalia drifted into the Soviet orbit, Ethiopia and Kenya would increase their demands on the west for arms provisions. The only real beneficiary in such a situation he continued, would be the Kremlin. An arms race did eventually ensue, with Somalia gaining enough of a lead to launch an abortive invasion of Ethiopia 8 years later. Here is the full text of his reaction to the later in October.
FROM: Henry Kissinger
SUBJECT: Coup in Somalia
Elements of the Somali Army and police seined power early this morning from Prime Minister Egal's elected government. First reports are very sketchy. The following is the sum of our intelligence up to the moment
-- The coup followed immediately upon a report split to Egal's governing party over the nomination of a successor for assassinated President Shermarke.
-- But there is no evidence that the Army acted on behalf of, or in specific opposition to, either of the factions in Egal's party. Egal's whereabouts are unknown, and the Somali radio has said simply that the country will be governed by "military council".
-- Nor is there evidence that the coup is related to the earlier assassination. The only radio broadcast so far by the new regime referred to general corruption and cited the assassination as an example of the breakdown of the civilian government.
-- The initial broadcast says the new regime will respect all foreign policy obligations, but also pledges aid to "freedom fighters", which almost certainly is a reversal of Egal's dote with Ethiopia over disputed border territories.
-- Thus far the coup has been bloodless. Our Embassy reports all Americans safe. Our Ambassador is meeting with other members of the diplomatic corps this afternoon to hear a forma1 statement from a spokesman of the new government.
Implications for US Interests
Judgments at this point are clearly premature, but my own guess is that this is yet another group of young officers who will remain quietly in the background. They were probably moved in part by disagreement with Egal's policy of detente, in part by resentment of the inevitable corruption and inefficiency of African democracies (even in a model government like Somalia's). The assassination and then the apparent disarray among Egal's followers over the succession offered a rare opportunity.
For the US, of course, the most important element will be the survival or the collapse of the detente. If the Somalis returned to bellicose irredentism (as these first signs seem to suggest), tension will rise throughout the area, including Kenya as well as Ethiopia. The old arms supply spiral could then begin again -- with the Somalis going to the Soviets, the Ethiopians to us, the Kenyans to the British.
Having tried detente and failed, Haile Selassie will probably find it impossible to hold his own hard-liners is check. And if the two sides slip back into belligerence, we should expect the Ethiopians to put our interests on the line -- the important communications facility at Kagnew -- in asking for increased military assistance. As the Somalis modernize their arms, and as Ethiopia diverts more of our help and their own resources to weapons rather than economic development, the only real be beneficiary is the Soviets.
I will have a further situation report for you as soon as we have more details.